‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.