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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.