Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”
These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.
A Network Unravels
For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.
“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”
