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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin carried on obstructing truce discussions, Trump ultimately introduced substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This move substantially impacted Putin's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, Trump has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually weaken that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business background, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will please the president. Yet, Russia's war is not only about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in place the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that are a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no such constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Every extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and prohibited." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "immediate unified military response" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not